The 2016 election? Really? Why write about that [shudder], now? Is there anything left to be said about the 2016 election?
It’s not just because I did not have a blog back then that I address it now. Looking forward convinces me of the importance of looking back. My impression is that we are not paying attention to the most important lessons to be learned from 2016. We should.
Our Discontent
In watching election coverage the night of November 6, 2016 and into the next morning, I bounced around from one station to another (CBS, ABC, NBC, PBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, CNBC, at least). The single most telling item I remember seeing was mentioned only once and quickly. A PBS exit poll asked voters willing to identify who had received their vote whether they believed their candidate was trustworthy. As I recall it, 63% of those who voted for Donald Trump said they did not believe him to be trustworthy. Only slightly fewer, 61% I think, said the same about Hillary Clinton despite having voted for her.
Think about that. Nearly two-thirds of those who bothered to vote did not trust the candidate they voted FOR. Imagine how they felt about the candidate they voted AGAINST. The most astounding thing about this is that I don’t doubt it. I, and almost everyone I know, couldn’t stand either candidate. I know a few, very few, who were happy, more or less, to vote for either Hillary or The Donald. The overwhelming sentiment was a visceral, almost desperate, need to vote against the other one. A friend put it succinctly the day before the election: “Do you realize I would gladly vote for Richard Nixon tomorrow?”
I don’t recall questions like this even being asked in past election exit polls. Another one was whether the voter would feel “scared” by a presidency of the other candidate. Of those who voted for Clinton, 70% said yes; for Trump, it was 60% for a Clinton presidency. That questions of this sort were thought to be appropriate for this election speaks for itself.
Before and Since
I noticed in the months leading up to the election that I had never seen so few campaign signs on lawns, or bumper stickers on cars, for a presidential race. While there may have been more elsewhere, I did a lot of driving around that time. I do think a few more appeared after the election – the blue ones in defiance and the red ones to gloat. My overall impression remained a lack of enthusiasm for either candidate.
When people told me how depressed they were after the election, I said I had been depressed about the election for months before it happened. I never had to explain what I meant.
It was the “Vote for the Lesser of Two Evils” election to end them all.
Well, maybe not. That may be the optimistic view, believe it or not. It was the “Vote for the Lesser of Two Evils” election to end them all, so far.
Here We Go
Not long after the votes were counted in the 2018 mid-terms, we were under way for 2020. You could tell by the number of hats being thrown into the ring – more than following a hat trick at a hockey game. For a while there, it seemed like it might be easier to have announcements made by Democrats who were not running for president.
The declared Democrats, or as I have begun calling them, the Committee to Re-Elect the President, have been competing feverishly to see who can most quickly and thoroughly alienate voters like me. These folks, apparently lacking the wherewithal to realize the effect of what they say, usher in our latest silly season with grand pronouncements.
Meanwhile, in the coming months, notice how often and how gleefully President Trump makes reference to the following: “socialist”, “socialism”, and especially “Green New Deal”. He recognizes his best chance when he sees it.
Speaking of the incumbent, and his outrage-of-the-day approach to the presidency, it should not be a given that an individual who has demonstrated clear unfitness for office be the 2020 Republican nominee. It does not takes a far-left looney to suggest the incumbent does not merit re-nomination. Indeed, the most devastating analyses of Donald Trump’s behavior have been written by leading conservative columnists like George Will and the late Charles Krauthammer. If you have not had a chance to read them, you owe it to yourself – regardless of your political persuasion. These pieces should be required reading for GOP leaders.
We have more than a year and a half to go before the 2020 election, but already I can’t stop wondering, yet again: How low can we go? (See post of 1/25/19, “Doing the Limbo Inside the Beltway”.)
The Most Important Takeaway
I realize how irresistible it is to analyze the horse-race aspects of why and how the election was decided. (How did Hillary do with left-handed, suburban Asian women, by the way?) What political science experts should be studying most urgently, though, is how we ended up having to choose between two candidates most Americans detested. Who finds this acceptable? How could this happen? Is there a way of ensuring it does not happen again?
What is the purpose of major political parties if not to develop and provide excellent candidates for office? The worst thing about the 2016 election was the choice we had. In a nation of 327 million, many of whom are astonishingly accomplished, this is the best we can do?
Perhaps we have made the job of President, or the process of attaining it, so distasteful that no one who would be ideal to serve is willing to seek it.
Is the primary system so flawed that it is time to go back to the “smoke-filled rooms” (even if without the smoke)?
The Citizens’ Role
I have referred to “voters like me”. So, who are we? Perhaps I am alone, but I suspect there are millions who take one issue and one candidate at a time, judging them on their merits. For President, we are looking for someone who is smart, sane, honorable, effective, and sensible. If we can get some creativity and wisdom, great. Is this really too much to ask?
We are not sanguine about where the next crazy swing of the pendulum is going to take us. We’d prefer to tamp down the pendulum’s swing, and the rhetoric, using the available energy to find solutions that work. While we may tend to lean one way or the other, at our core we are neither red nor blue. We are sick and tired – of sleaze, foolishness, dishonesty, grandstanding, useless belligerence, and so forth.
We’ve got to act accordingly. We must hold both individuals and political parties accountable by refusing to reward bad behavior with mindless election or re-election of the sub-par.
We must understand that our votes in primaries are at least as important as in elections. As 2016 illustrates, there’s only so much we can salvage on Election Day if we have two unacceptable choices. If forced somehow to pick between primary and election to make sure we vote and get it right, we should choose the primary.
We need to encourage and nurture good people all along the way in the hope that one of them eventually makes it to President.
One Final Thought: Timing
There must be other problems with our primaries as well, but I believe I have never cast a vote that mattered in a New Jersey presidential primary. Effectively, I have been disenfranchised, as has everyone in the state.
The reason is timing. New Jersey’s primaries are so late that the identity of each party’s nominee is a fait accompli before we ever get to the polls. Thus, unless we have nearly a dead heat going into a convention, it is virtually impossible for our votes to matter. If, as argued, the primary can be more important than the election, this qualifies as a big deal.
Meanwhile, a good early showing in Iowa or New Hampshire can go far to propel someone to viability. That “good showing” need not even be a win; doing better than pundits predicted can do the trick.
This juxtaposition strikes me as ridiculous, and easily fixable. While fixing it, perhaps we can stumble upon someone who would make a fine president. How about at least one stellar candidate from each party? There’s still time, but only if we get busy.
Ken Bossong
© 2019 Kenneth J. Bossong